{"id":1092,"date":"2021-07-02T09:28:27","date_gmt":"2021-07-02T08:28:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tradersofcrypto.com\/news\/?p=1092"},"modified":"2021-07-02T09:28:27","modified_gmt":"2021-07-02T08:28:27","slug":"btc-enters-third-quarter-with-shaky-indicators","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tradersofcrypto.com\/news\/btc-enters-third-quarter-with-shaky-indicators\/","title":{"rendered":"BTC Enters Third Quarter with Shaky Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"#\n<p><a href=\"\/news\/where-is-bitcoin-btc-possibly-heading-to\/\">Bitcoin<\/a> (BTC) trading remains shaky, with uncertain sentiments as the leading coin ended the quarter with the worst loss since 2018. The next period once again faces the challenges of revealing the price direction and the validity of growth models.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BTC is still not out of the current downtrend, and the actual demand is unclear. Predictions hinge on short-term price moves toward $35,000.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> below 33K is getting accumulated by strong hands.<br>So I expect a price reversal on 32.4K. Else we will go back to 29K.<br><br>To break the downtrend, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> needs to reclaim 35K.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vrRipRnTGJ\">pic.twitter.com\/vrRipRnTGJ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Crypto Nolan (@cryptonolan) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptonolan\/status\/1410854938096267265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 2, 2021<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>BTC touched the $36,000 level mid-week, but quickly slid to a lower range. Signs of accumulation at a lower price range may mean BTC will be able to bounce instead of sinking to new lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>BTC Miners: Capitulation or New Opportunity<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the announced shutdowns of mining farms in the Sichuan province of China, the Bitcoin hashrate has declined in the range of 50-70%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In less than 24 hours, the Bitcoin network will undergo a significant shift, as it faces a historical difficulty adjustment. The predicted downward adjustment will be more than 26%, essentially making it 26% easier and cheaper for miners to produce a block.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The two previous periods adjusted difficulty downward by 15% and 5% respectively. BTC mining difficulty is still close to historical highs, but the growth has flattened out. The absence of some big Chinese miners means other block producers may receive more BTC due to lowered competition.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BTC mining may recover to overcome the farm shutdown anomaly, as the new lower difficulty will attract miners at least in the next two-week period.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">When difficulty drops, it becomes more profitable to mine and more miners will come on-line.<br><br>The economic incentives are working exactly as intended. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> is beautiful in that way.<\/p>&mdash; Jimmy Song (\uc1a1\uc7ac\uc900) (@jimmysong) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jimmysong\/status\/1410684997590130691?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 1, 2021<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, it is uncertain if the equipment would be shipped to other regions and if other farms would compensate for the diminished hashrate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>BTC S2F Model Faces Bigger Challenge<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite hovering above $33,000, BTC is still facing a reckoning on its price action. The stock-to-flow model is showing the current price touching the lower bound of the range, with some fears the model may break down this time.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the S2F model has managed to hit most of its milestones, especially after the block reward halving in 2020.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Even for me it is always a bit uneasy when bitcoin price is at the lower bound of the stock-to-flow model. Will it hold (like Mar 2019 when I published S2F, or Mar 2020 Covid, or Sep 2020 with BTC stuck at $10K) and is this another buying opportunity? Or will S2F be invalidated? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/iIjTC2Ncy3\">pic.twitter.com\/iIjTC2Ncy3<\/a><\/p>&mdash; PlanB (@100trillionUSD) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/100trillionUSD\/status\/1407620265475989506?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 23, 2021<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The model has not been invalidated so far, despite short-term fluctuations.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Puell Multiple Model May be Misleading<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the BTC models of mining-related to price growth, the Puell Multiple indicator, is in a zone that may suggest <a href=\"\/guides\/how-to-buy-bitcoin-in-the-uk-with-a-debit-card\/\">buying BTC<\/a> is a good choice. The indicator may be misleading, despite hovering in the 0.5 value range.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Puell Multiple measures the current daily issuance of BTC in dollar value against the 365-day moving average of the value of mined coins. Even at today\u2019s relatively large prices, the ratio is showing fewer BTC entering the market. David Puell, the creator of the quantitative measure, warned traders to take the ratio with some skepticism as being potentially misleading.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a>: Getting reports that the most awesomely-named indicator just gave its fifth buy signal in BTC history.<br><br>Looking good, yes, but remember that Puell Multiple reacts to hash rate movements too, and hash rate follows price, not the other way around.<\/p>&mdash; David Puell (@kenoshaking) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/kenoshaking\/status\/1409537487190511621?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 28, 2021<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But in the past, a low Puell ratio meant miners deliberately shut down machines or capitulated due to an unprofitable market. The current slide in mining is an anomaly due to government meddling, and not a decision on the side of miners.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Miners themselves have no reason to capitulate, as the current market prices cover the cost of BTC production and ensure mining is currently profitable.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>BTC Rainbow Chart Looks Encouraging<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The BTC rainbow chart suggests current prices are in the \u201cstill cheap\u201d range and may see accumulation. The chart does not guarantee an immediate bounce, and allows for accumulation at lower prices.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rainbow chart is still away from a definite buy signal, and its lower range may lie even below $20,000 in the current price cycle.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>BTC Braces for Another Low-Volume Weekend<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The volatility of BTC increased significantly in the past year, from a low of 1.65% on average in the summer of 2020 to the current levels above 5.2%. The average volatility measure expanded both due to upside and downside moves.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the biggest change arrived from the 50% loss from the $64K range. Now, BTC braces for another weekend where relatively low trading volumes may lead to testing a lower price range.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BTC stood at $33,406.68 on Friday, with trading volumes down to about $33B in 24 hours, down from peak trading above $123B in 24 hours. The asset remains volatile, quickly adding $400 after bouncing from the $33,000 level. Market cap dominance expanded to above 47% as altcoins deepened their losses.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BTC flows to exchanges are also slowing down, showing enough holders ready to wait out the volatility.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> balances on exchanges flattening out again after a large wave of inflows in May.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8mQEOqTf06\">https:\/\/t.co\/8mQEOqTf06<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ziTBBbEI6m\">pic.twitter.com\/ziTBBbEI6m<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yann &amp; Jan (@Negentropic_) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Negentropic_\/status\/1410214195958882304?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 30, 2021<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This tendency is paired with renewed interest for institutional <a href=\"\/coins\/bitcoin\/\">BTC trading<\/a>. Recent rumors suggested billionaire George Soros opening a BTC trading fund, with no immediate confirmation.<\/p>\n#","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BTC prices are at a crossroad position once again. The diminished mining power may shift the balance of coin production, as Chinese miners try to move their equipment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1093,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2,12,199,16,267],"class_list":["post-1092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorised","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-mining","tag-s2f","tag-trade-bitcoin","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradersofcrypto.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1092","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradersofcrypto.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradersofcrypto.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradersofcrypto.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradersofcrypto.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1092"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/tradersofcrypto.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1092\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradersofcrypto.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1093"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradersofcrypto.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1092"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradersofcrypto.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1092"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradersofcrypto.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1092"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}