Bitcoin (BTC) Under $40K on Weekend Crash
Bitcoin (BTC) followed the trend of weekend weakness, sinking under $40,000. The latest downward move, with a low of around $38,380, raised questions on the next scenario for the crypto market. On Monday, BTC inched down more, to $38,162.97.
One possibility is a deeper cut, sending BTC as low as $28,000 for another bearish period. The other scenario is a period of accumulation, leading to another bullish price move in the near future.
BTC retreated after a volatile week, where altcoins also managed to stage short-term ralliese, and trading volumes continued to show an appetite for risk.
Is BTC in a Bear Market
In 2022, BTC has kept to an unfavorable 12-month rolling gain, and has actually lost value compared to March 2021. BTC traded around $48,000 on March 6, 2021, despite moving through two all-time highs in the past 12 months.
In the most extreme predictions, this year is seen as potentially bringing a deep cut to BTC prices, sending the asset under $10,000. Currently, there is no unified prediction on BTC positions, with expectations ranging from new all-time highs to a significant price cut.
However, it is still an open question whether BTC has entered a bear market and whether the current year will see the downward trend continue without reversal. For some analysts, the current price weakness is a sign of accumulation and will be a period of sideways movements.
BTC also shows signs of active address growth and some consolidation of large-scale holdings. But the 1,000 BTC wallets may be a statistical fluke, as corporate entities move their cold storage for more convenience.
Currently, BTC is in the “still cheap” price range based on the Rainbow Chart. Levels around $32,000 would signal potential for accumulation. To continue the rally, BTC would need to go above $44,000 again.
As in the previous rally, the real climb is expected only if BTC breaks above $46,000, a price level which remained unreachable last week.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is again at 22 points, in the range of “extreme fear”, falling down from 52 points at the beginning of March, when sentiment touched neutral levels.
The current volatility sparks more caution, as BTC has continued to attack levels with significant leveraged positions. Both shorts and longs remain risky of being liquidated due to heightened price volatility.
Is a Bitcoin ETF Coming
The expectations of a US-based Bitcoin ETF are still hypothetical. There is no immediate hope for a launch. Grayscale Capital is currently trying to transform its investment vehicle into an ETF, and is currently in a period of comments and suggestions with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
A Canadian ETF is now fully operational, and continues to build up its BTC reserves.
Based on the GBTC market price on the OTC market, mainstream interest in BTC is diminishing. The price of GBTC shares holds the equivalent of BTC at a price around $26,000 per coin, much lower compared to current market prices.
BTC Taken Off Exchanges
BTC keeps up its scarcity, with exchange flows suggesting more coins are leaving the markets.
For now, Ethereum (ETH) remains under selling pressure, despite the tokens locked in the ETH 2.0 contract or burned for fees.
USDT Inflows Fail to Prop BTC Volumes
In the past month, the supply of Tether (USDT) has increased by about 1B tokens, to more than 79.9B USDT.
However, this does not translate into growing BTC trading volumes. During weekends, BTC activity is down to about $17B in 24 hours, a slim trading level that magnifies price movements.
Another 1B tokens have been added to the supply of USDC, one of the more transparent stablecoins. Currently, USDC has a supply above 52.9B. However, USDC has a turnover of about $2.5B equivalent, while USDT trading achieves between $40B and $67B in 24 hours, depending on the overall level of activity.
The BTC market cap dominance is down to its usual range of 42.1%, while Ethereum (ETH) dominance is down to 18%. Current macro shocks remain at play for all crypto assets, though the potential of BTC to keep value is still insufficient. Ongoing fears of inflation still make the case of crypto as an alternative investment for retail buyers.
BTC mining remains near its all-time high close to 200 EH/s, with current prices still highly favorable along with more efficient mining rigs. ETH miners also don’t give up on the network and keep up activity at peak levels.
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