Another Sideways Trajectory on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Cryptos

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The cryptocurrency market had an excellent bull run at the beginning of 2021, with some cryptos returning 2x-5x in few weeks. In fact, the biggest two proof-of-work coins, Bitcoin and Ethereum, began their run in late 2020, much before the rest of the altcoins.

But all the gains were all put off in May 2021, as regulation and environmental concerns dropped the bullish sentiment among the institutional money and even the public for that matter. Precisely speaking, the ban announcement from China and pause in Bitcoin payment in Tesla led the entire crypto market to plunge 50% and higher.

That being said, the recently appointed chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Genslar, requested Congress to provide more regulatory oversight on the cryptocurrency market. And in defence of excessively optimistic investors, promises have been circulated over the years.

Though hopeful recovery came in June, all the bids were eaten by the bears – crashing the market for another round. However, some fundamentally strong coins are maintaining grounds at the recent lows.

Talking about the current price action, the Bitcoin crypto market is at an interesting level – as the fight between the bulls and bears commences, while Ethereum looks quite dull, relatively.

Besides, the futures & options market is presenting insights in line with the price action.

Cointelegraph analyzed the Bitcoin futures expiry and asserted that the bears could take a $450 million lead if the BTC token price fails to hold below $32,000 on June 25. Similarly, the analysts of Cointelegraph, on June 10, stated that the $1.5 billion monthly options expiry could turn into a make-or-break scenario, as ¾ of the neutral-bullish options would become worthless if the price dropped below $2,200.

Coming to the updated figures, a total of $1.3 billion open interest for ETH options and $500 million of ether futures contract is set to expire on Friday. On the other hand, the grown open interest of Bitcoin at $2.64 billion and $1.44 billion in the futures market is up for expiry this Friday.

Lack of Correlation in Bitcoin Futures Expiry

It was observed that the March 2021 expiry of Bitcoin was not in sync with the previous expiry in December 2020.

In November 2020, ahead of the December 2020 futures expiry, the price rallied over 75% with strong momentum.

Despite the 102,000 Bitcoin option maturing in December end, the price remained unaffected. In fact, the bull run continued after a shallow retracement in January 2021, where the price doubled from $30,000 to $60,000.

On the other hand, in the March 2021 futures expiry, the price action was out of correlation to its previous expiry. The price saw a 17% drop ahead of the options expiry. Though it recovered in the following week, it continued to plunge further.

It is indeed worth the wait to see how to market pans out post the $6 billion futures and options expiry on Friday.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

During the entire consolidation phase of Bitcoin, the price action has always remained enticing and interesting to short-term traders.

Typically, makes a strong move, retraces in the opposite direction, and continues with the predominant direction again. But in the case of BTC crypto, the recent price movement is out of the blue.

For instance, the initial drop looked like a false breakout but turned out to be a wedge. And now, the market seems to be in a range with equal power coming from both buyers and sellers.

For about a couple of months, the BTC market held on to the Support at $35,000. But with lower high sequences from the bulls, the market eventually dropped below the Support. However, another Support at $31,000 still seems to be maintaining grounds.

The range, which was previous between $35,000 and $40,000, has gotten narrow – between $35,000 and $31,000. However, with the volatility kicking in, the current range is not expected to last as long as the previous one.

Hence, we see that there is uncertainty in the price action ahead of the expiry today.

Ethereum Price Analysis

If looking at the bigger picture, the price action of ETH cryptocurrency is similar to that of BTC. However, there are subtle differences. And these differences could indeed lead to a massive impact on future price action.

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum, too, held as Support at $2,200 for the longest time, until the sellers broke through it earlier this week.

Presently, the Support of $1,883 is in action where the buyers are showing barely any attempts to head higher. And the price missing to touch the circle at the Support turned Resistance indicates that the bulls are not ready yet.

Thus, it is worth a watch to see if the trend reverses post the futures and options expiry.

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