Bitcoin (BTC) Could Lead Correction Period in All of 2022
Bitcoin (BTC) slowed down once again, hovering at $39,015.91 at the beginning of the new week. The leading coin once again raised the issue of an unpredictable year, possibly with no new all-time high. BTC now expects a different scenario – either a sideways movement or a bear market continuing until the end of the year.
BTC also has a well-established pattern of attacking leveraged positions. Despite the more careful derivative trading, BTC switches direction just enough to liquidate shorts and longs within a price range.
Other predictions see both BTC and altcoins going through a bear market and possibly taking years for another rally. Such a scenario would test multiple interconnected systems, especially DeFi where value is generated by BTC and other crypto collaterals. A renewed bear market with a dropping collateral value could cause a crash and wipe out some of the protocols.
BTC Still Here to Stay
The attitude toward BTC has shifted, and accumulation continues. At the same time, trading statistics brought down the Crypto Fear and Greed Index down to 24 points, or Extreme Fear.
The measure is not necessarily bearish, as prices can rise to attack short positions and reverse the expected drop.
The other possible scenario for BTC is a rapid reversal and a rally starting from the current level. However, the exact timing of the rally is uncertain. While there may be a reversal, the indecisive period may continue longer and contain many changes in direction.
At the same time, exchanges hold a record low of actual coins, while big whale wallets grow their stash. At this point, BTC may be less likely to be used as speculation, and more as a form of reserve. Miners keep holding onto their block rewards, with a record share of coins held for the long term as the BTC supply available for the future diminishes.
But at the current price, BTC is nowhere near a bottom, possibly revisiting lower ranges at least for a short time. The Rainbow Chart is still a bit above the buy signal range, and for some, BTC is in the mid-range, way above lows where the case for buying is stronger.
The riskiest proposition about BTC is whether the current level will be a local bottom, or continue to slide and even crash rapidly. BTC is sliding more compared to the previous weekend, where prices held above $41,000 most of the time.
Now, BTC heads into the new week already at a lower price range, threatening to trigger more panic-selling. The BTC dominance is down to 41%, with Ethereum (ETH) increasing its influence to 19.5% based on market cap. ETH, however, is still under $3,000, possibly weighing on the DeFi ecosystem due to the lowering value of collaterals.
The other issue for BTC is dropping trading volume, which can speed up the price drop. BTC only saw about $17B in trading volumes, a usual low over the weekend. With the new week, trading volumes may return to their weekday range above $30B in 24 hours.
With April moving toward its end, BTC may also see more dramatic price move. The asset may have a big correction once roughly every quarter, with the current range seeing a dip under $30,000 as a possibility.
There is no way to tell whether BTC will go for expansion and at what exact moment. In the short term, BTC has yet to face futures expirations at the end of April, staging a fight between bearish and bullish positions.
Will LUNA Survive a Bearish Downturn
Terra (LUNA) is a protocol that has, on multiple occasions, survived the market downturns and kept close to its usual price or even rallied.
LUNA traded at $91.12, stepping down from the $100 range but still with a hope of recovery. The asset was up more than 13% in the past week, as it continued to accrue value. In the past week alone, UST, the native dollar-fixed token, added more than $600M in notional value. The supply of UST mops up LUNA tokens.
The potential for LUNA scarcity may cause this asset to break out, despite the direction of BTC. LUNA is possibly one of the most decoupled assets, pursuing its own subset of value locked.
The Terra stash of BTC now reaches 42,530.82 coins, with a TVL for the whole protocol now above $29B. Anchor Protocol is still the biggest Terra value hub, with more than 54% of all assets locked.
The Terra community is highly hopeful for the performance of LUNA and the success of UST. Now, the protocol will have to prove itself during a bear market or a sideways price action. LUNA will be the indicator of altcoin health, especially with multiple protocols following its lead to create their own stablecoins like TRON (TRX).
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