Bitcoin (BTC) Near $52K, Could Revisit All-Time High
Bitcoin (BTC) caught the markets by surprise after weekend trading pushed prices up close to $52,000, after weeks lagging under the $50K range. On Monday, BTC extended the weekend gains, standing at $51,809.57. A slight Coinbase premium boosted the price above $51,812, in addition to the slight premium on the BTC/BUSD pair on the Binance exchange.
BTC reversed the pattern of low-activity weekends when the price was shaken down. Trading reached $32B in the past 24 hours, with suggestions of new liquidity inflows to exchanges. The latest price move reignited the debates on the possibilities for a new all-time high, and the potential to reach a target price of $100,000 or more.
There is little consensus on whether BTC would stage a gradual climb, but the recent heightened activity sparked predictions of a fast price move with significant upward potential.
Over the past week, the supply of Tether (USDT) ensured some of the inflows. New USDT were created since September 1, in excess of 1.2B tokens minted. The potential of USDT to boost BTC valuations was immediately realized by the market.
The inflow of USDT follows a period of accumulation signs for BTC, as well as modest but noticeable outflows from exchanges. At above $51K, even most recent buyers during the 2021 rally are in the money, further limiting the selling pressure.
Holders Return, Spot Market Rules Trend
The latest indicators reveal BTC leveraged trading remains subdued, with expectations of further limitations on the Binance futures exchange.
The latest upward trend coincides with a return to confidence and the trend of holding onto the actual coins.
Demand for physical BTC shows not only speculative interest but also demand for the actual digital coin for its specific utility at holding and sending funds.
Altcoins Point to Bullish Market
In the years past, BTC and altcoins often held a predictable relationship. BTC rallies were followed by an inflow into altcoin markets, which were then again dumped for BTC.
Over the years, multiple projects decoupled from BTC and moved on their own investment logic. The presence of USDT and other dollar-pegged assets created other active hubs of value generation. Despite the recent BTC rally, the overall market cap dominance continues to slide, and is now down to 41.4%, down from above 46% a month ago. The weight of ETH and new projects continue to mop up liquidity and demand for rapid appreciation.
ETH first decoupled from BTC, based on the DeFi space holding in value that did not flow back to the leading coin. ETH prices are now recovering again, getting closer to $4,000 with expectations of a new all-time high.
But newer projects are also booming, including Avalanche (AVAX), Solana (SOL), as well as Quant (QNT). The coming weeks will show which ones are true accumulation of value, and which ones are short-term trading anomalies. But during the latest rally, those tokens based on their own ecosystems of decentralized finance and NFT collectibles are outpacing the growth of BTC.
Bitcoin Mining Holds Up
Bitcoin mining is still about 30% less active in comparison to peak values from May. Still, most miners have returned and are adding to the scarcity by holding onto coins.
Mining difficulty is again at an all-time high, returning to an almost non-stop climb since the beginning of mining.
How High can BTC Go
In the short term, BTC price moves may hinge on attacks against leveraged positions. However, the accumulation stage may continue, leading to an attempted repeat of the previous peak around $64,000.
In the short term, BTC may move above the $54,000 move next. But all eyes are on the potential for an all-time high, as well as a potential cycle peak. Predictions of $100K by the end of 2021 were repeated, as well as more extreme cycle peak possibilities at above $200K.
BTC is yet to revisit previous highs, also setting a warning that buying near the peak may translate into long waiting times until the next opportunity to be in the money.
Short Positions Almost Extinct
One of the indicators for short-term climbs is the conspicuous lack of short positions. The recent trend is setting expectations for upward moves, with traders stepping aside to avoid short liquidations.
The Crypto fear and greed index is back in Extreme Greed territory at 79 points. The index takes into account trader behavior, and additional data now shows a shift to long positions is possible with the suggested upward price moves.
Despite the price trend, however, leveraged BTC trading has inherent risks, leading to significant liquidations.
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